US elections ‘09

- preview article for Lib Dem Voice

In electoral terms, 2009 is supposed to be an off year in American politics, but there are still a number of intriguing races worth taking a look at ahead of the Nov 3rd elections.

Top of the list is the Governor’s race in Virginia. State Democrat Creigh Deeds faces Republican Bob McDonnell, in an increasingly heated, if not plain nasty race. McDonnell is ahead in a state Obama picked up last year. Interestingly, Deeds beat Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe in the primary, but his campaign is yet to shine in the run-up to election day. As they head into the final weeks, the GOP looking increasingly likely to win.

The New Jersey Governor’s race sees a similar pattern, except the Democrats might have hoped to fair better in the state as Democratic incumbent Jim Corzine is running for a second term. Corzine is trying to fight off a stiff challenge from Republican Chris Christie. Christie has been consistently ahead in every poll since January and is growing in confidence, but polls in the last few days do show Corzine mounting a comeback after a negative ads blitz.

The economy and healthcare are clearly key issues in the elections – issues which take Obama’s shine off and act as a rallying point for the Republicans, reviving their electoral prospects this year and next. Polls show about 60% oppose a government requirement for an approved healthcare plan and the anger in the debate easily outstrips the heated MP expenses saga in the UK earlier in the year. Republicans are also talking up taxation issues in a direct appeal to their supporters and to win over hard pressed Democrats.

Publicly, Obama isn’t taking much interest in these races, but VP Joe Biden is. A natural campaigner, Biden brings a human touch to the campaign trail. He has also been helping loyal House Democrats repaying support on healthcare and the economy. The House of Representatives is up next year, with incumbents in tight races fighting their re-election campaigns from the day after the last election.

There is much fun to be had with city politics. Plenty of Mayors are up this year – including New York’s newly Independent Michael Bloomberg, who is currently polling well. He doesn’t seem to be facing too much of a challenge, however others are. Boston’s incumbent Mayor Thomas Menino, is taking no chances, running a ferocious re-election campaign for a historic fifth term running Boston, and he might well do it. Miami, Minneapolis, San Diego and Seattle are all seeing city elections.

Attention is already turning to next year’s elections – including the California gubernatorial election when Arnie steps down due to term limits. Lifelong campaigner, Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome are fighting it out for the Democratic nomination. 2010 will be Obama’s big test, and one which might decide his fate as a one or two term President.

* Paul Elgood is a Lib Dem councillor in Brighton & Hove, and blogs at The Brunswick Blog. He has recently returned from a trip to Washington.